Seat Projections

Vote share trajectory, poll consensus, and projection scenarios

258 Days to Election

Vote Share Trajectory

Congress decline and AAP surge (verified)

2019 LS
INC: 40%AAP: 1%SAD: 26%BJP: 9%
2022 Assembly
INC: 23%AAP: 42%SAD: 18%BJP: 7%
2024 LS
INC: 26%AAP: 26%SAD: 12%BJP: 18.5%

BJP Warning: 6.6% to 18.56% in 2 years. From 0 Lok Sabha seats to nearly contesting all 117.

Seat Projection Scenarios

Based on 2024 LS data and current trends

Pessimistic
30-40 seats15%
Realistic
40-55 seats55%
Optimistic
55-65 seats25%
Supermajority
65+ seats5%

Reality check: AAP won 92 seats in 2022 from 42% vote share. Congress needs 59 for majority.

Poll Consensus Ranges

Aggregated multi-source polling projections — May 2026

Congress45-58

Mid-point: 51.5 seats

AAP28-37

Mid-point: 32.5 seats

SAD14-18

Mid-point: 16 seats

Key Insight:Hung assembly is the base case scenario. Congress needs to exceed the 45-58 range significantly to approach majority (59 seats). AAP is projected to lose significant seats from 2022's 92.

Scenario Planning Matrix

Base Case (45-50%)

55-65 seats

Congress: 55-65 seats, AAP: 35-45 seats, SAD-BJP: 15-25 seats

Hung Assembly, Congress largest single party, requires coalition support

Best Case (20-25%)

70-85 seats

Congress: 70-85 seats, AAP: 25-35 seats, SAD-BJP: 10-15 seats

CM face announced early, opposition fragmentation (BJP solo + Amritpal splits Panthic)

Worst Case (25-30%)

18-30 seats

Congress: 18-30 seats, AAP: 60-75 seats, SAD-BJP: 8-12 seats

AAP welfare reinforcement, Congress leadership vacuum, SAD-BJP alliance