Regional Analysis

Malwa, Majha, and Doaba grievances and dynamics

117 Seats

MALWA

69 Seats

Drugs + Debt

Highest drug network penetration

Bargari sacrilege legacy

Farmer debt is cultural narrative

Jat Sikh dominance

3-way contest (AAP-Congress-SAD)

Key Issues:

Drug crisis, farmer debt, groundwater depletion, cancer cases (1 in 20 households Malwa)

MAJHA

27 Seats

Jobs + Security

Border area, military/farm concentration

Youth migration to armed forces/overseas

4-way contest (AAP-Congress-SAD-BJP)

Strong BJP in urban areas

SAD retains some pockets

Key Issues:

Border security, drug smuggling routes, youth unemployment, religious sentiment

DOABA

23 Seats

Water + Work

Highest groundwater depletion in Punjab

Highest NRI population

Remittance dependency creates aspiration gap

Highest SC concentration (8 SC-reserved seats)

BSP splits Dalit vote

Key Issues:

Water crisis, NRI voter influence, SC representation, educational opportunities

Regional Vote Share Math

59

Seats for Majority

~32-35%

Vote Share Needed

+8.7%

From Current 26.3%

1.2M

New Voters Needed

Caste Composition by Region

Malwa (69 seats)Jat Sikh 25%, OBC 31%, SC 32%, Sikh 58%
Majha (27 seats)Jat Sikh 20%, SC 28%, Sikh 65%, Hindu 32%
Doaba (23 seats)SC 38% (highest), OBC 29%, Ravidasia heartland