Sentiment Analytics

Seat projections, scenario planning, and swing voter analysis

Seat Projections (May 2026) - Informal Surveys

Non-scientific social media surveys - directional indicators only. Source: Facebook videos, X posts

Congress

45-58seatsavg: 52

52%

AAP

28-37seatsavg: 33

33%

SAD

14-17seatsavg: 16

16%

BJP

9-12seatsavg: 11

11%

Note: Hung Assembly is high probability outcome per Punjab Today (Jan 2026). Anti-incumbency is real but unconverted - no unified alternative has crystallized.

Formal Predictive Analytics (MP10-001 & MP10-009)

Congress internal seat projection model - 45 observers, 3 surveys, MRP methodology

Hidden Observers

~3 per district across 23 districts

AICC Surveys

Bhupesh Baghel + Rahul Gandhi teams

Confidence Interval

±15-25 seats at state level

State-level projection

Methodology

MRP

Multilevel Regression + Post-Stratifcation

Scenario Planning (MP10-009)

Base Case (45-50% probability)

Congress:55-65

AAP:35-45

SAD+BJP:15-25

Hung Assembly, Congress largest single party, requires coalition support

Best Case for Congress (20-25%)

Congress:70-85

AAP:25-35

SAD+BJP:10-15

CM face announced early, opposition fragmentation (BJP solo + Amritpal splits Panthic)

Worst Case for Congress (25-30%)

Congress:18-30

AAP:60-75

SAD+BJP:8-12

AAP welfare reinforcement, Congress leadership vacuum, SAD-BJP alliance

Swing Voter Analysis (MP10-004)

Volatility & Margins

Seats within swing margin:79% (92/117)

Late swing factor:40-50% in final 2 weeks

NOTA 2022 (actual):0.71% (110,308 votes)

NOTA increase vs 2017:10x (0.07% - 0.71%)

Jalandhar Central:NOTA 953 > margin 247

2017-2022 Vote Swing

AAP:+27.9% (14.4%-42.3%)

Congress:-15.6% (38.5%-22.9%)

SAD+BJP:-7.6% (25.7%-18.1%)

Current Assembly Composition (May 2026)

117 seats total - confidence motion passed with 94 AAP MLAs

Party	Current Seats	2022 Result	Change
AAP	94	92 seats (42.01%)	Hold +2
Congress	16	18 seats (22.98%)	Lost 2
SAD	3	3 seats (18.38%)	Hold (post-split)
BJP	2	2 seats (8.0%)	Hold (going solo 2027)
BSP	1	0 seats	Gain 1
Independent	1	2 seats	Lost 1

2027 Contest Scenarios

Winning threshold varies by contest type

Four-cornered contest

~20-22%

AAP vs Congress vs SAD vs BJP

Vote splitting lowers winning mark

Three-cornered (with combine)

~26-28%

AAP vs Congress vs BJP-SAD

Higher winning threshold

Hung Assembly probability

HIGH

AAP single largest but short of majority

SC Voter Dynamics (32% of Punjab Population)

AAP won 29/34 SC-reserved seats in 2022

Total SC Population

~32%

Highest proportion in India

AAP SC-reserved seats (2022)

29/34

85% of SC seats

Mazhabi Sikh (30% of SC)

SAD-AAP shift

Rural Malwa/Majha

Ravidasia (23-26% of SC)

Congress base

Doaba heartland

Ad-Dharm (11-15% of SC)

Congress/BSP

Most educated SC

Caste Census:AAP commissioned caste census April 2026 to assess SC aspirations amid conversion controversy (Christianity). Estimates range from "few thousand" (academic) to inflated political claims. Impact unknown.

AAP Vote Share Collapse (2022-2026)

From wave victory to rapid erosion

2022 Assembly

42.01%

92 seats

Wave victory

2024 Lok Sabha

~26%

7/13 seats

Sharp collapse

2026 Surveys

26-28%

Projected

Congress at 31-35%