Governance & Satisfaction

AAP governance track record, broken promises, and satisfaction metrics

Governance Satisfaction Barometer - AAP Government (2022-2026)

MP1-Foundational Scan | Research Date: 19 May 2026 | Classification: Strategic Intelligence

Executive Summary:Public satisfaction with the Bhagwant Mann-led AAP government has undergone a steep decline from the euphoric post-election high of March 2022. While the government retains a single credible achievement (free electricity), it faces deep dissatisfaction on the issues that matter most: drug eradication, employment, women's welfare, and corruption-free governance. The 2024 Lok Sabha results (AAP won only 3 of 13 seats) serve as the most authoritative satisfaction proxy.

Overall Satisfaction

~40%

Down from 85% in Q1 2022

Drug Eradication

15-20%

AAP's broken #1 promise

Youth Unemployment

19.3%

Rural: 22.5%

CM Mann Approval

42-45%

Down from 80% in Mar 2022

Issue-wise Satisfaction

Sorted by satisfaction level - drug eradication and employment are the biggest failures

Free Electricity
72%HIGH
Education
42%MODERATE
Infrastructure
42%MODERATE
Women's Welfare
32%LOW
Healthcare
32%LOW
Farmer Welfare
27%LOW
Law & Order
27%LOW
Corruption-Free
22%LOW
Employment
22%VERY_LOW
Drug Eradication
17%VERY_LOW

Demographic Satisfaction

Youth (15-29)

Most eroded - AAP's strongest base

17%
Women

Delayed Rs 1000 scheme

32%
Jat Sikh (20%)

Farm distress, drug crisis

32%
SC (31.9%)

Congress base returning

32%
Urban

Propped by electricity

42%

Lok Sabha 2024 Results (June)

Congress7/13
AAP3/13
SAD1/13
Independents2/13

Key: AAP won only 3 seats as incumbent - Congress maintained 7 despite multi-cornered fight

Key Anti-Incumbency Indicators

Drug crisis failureCore promise broken
Lok Sabha 2024 (3/13 seats)Anti-incumbency confirmed
Youth unemployment 19.3%Demographic erosion
Rural turnout 48.4% (lowest since 2008)Voter disengagement
Rs 1000 delayed 4 yearsWomen demographic erosion
7 MPs defected (Apr 2026)Internal party collapse
10+ ministers dropped/arrestedCorruption taint
Social media spending scandalTransparency concerns

CM Bhagwant Mann Approval Trend

PeriodApprovalNotes
Mar 202280%Massive personal mandate from Sangrur
Late 202265%Electricity success helped
Mid 202350%Drug crisis; remote-controlled by Kejriwal perception
Early 202440%Lok Sabha loss damaged credibility
Late 202438%Delhi AAP collapse; seen as Kejriwal's deputy
Mid 202542%Image-building efforts; tough administrator push
Early 202645%Guarantees fulfilled narrative

AAP Broken Promises - Key Electoral Liabilities

Women Stipend: Rs 1,000/Month

4 Years Delayed - 1.3+ Crore Women Affected

Promise Date

March 2022

Announced in AAP's 2022 manifesto

Implementation

April 2026 (Pilot)

Only pilot started, full rollout delayed 4+ years

AAP's Broken Promise: 25 Lakh Jobs

2016/2017 commitment - 5 years, unfulfilled

AAP's 2016/2017 commitment: 25 lakh jobs in 5 years. As of 2026, this promise remains unfulfilled - youth unemployment has actually increased since AAP took office.

Source: NDTV July 2016, The Hindu March 2026

AAP Governance: Claims vs Reality

What AAP claims vs what voters experience

AAP Healthcare: Mohalla Clinics

Free primary healthcare via 881 Mohalla Clinics

Mohalla Clinics

881

Free primary healthcare centers

OPD Visits

5 Crore+

Over 5 crore patient visits

MMSY Coverage

Rs 10 Lakh

Per family insurance coverage

Congress Counter: Mohalla Clinics provide basic care but lack specialists, diagnostics, and emergency services. Advanced cases still require expensive private hospitals.

AAP Education: Schools of Eminence

Education sector investments

NAS Ranking

#1

National Achievement Survey rank

Schools of Eminence

118

Upgraded secondary schools

Teachers Recruited

14,525

New teacher appointments

Note: NAS #1 ranking based on government school performance. Private school results not included in this ranking.

AAP Anti-Drug Campaign

NDPS Act enforcement statistics - 63,053 cases, 85,418 arrests - but drugs remain #1 voter issue

NDPS Cases

63,053

Total cases registered

Arrested

85,418

Individuals arrested

Heroin Seized

5,119 kg

Drug seizures under AAP

Users Affected

6.6 Million

Drug users in Punjab

Gap:Despite 63K+ cases and 85K arrests, drugs remain Punjab's #1 voter issue. 230K opioid-dependent, 106 overdose deaths (2024). Supply chains intact.

Strategic Implications for Congress

• AAP's floor: ~35-40% re-election willingness (40-50 seats, down from 92 in 2022) - Congress needs 59+ for majority

• #1 Attack Vector: Drug crisis - AAP promised to end in 4 weeks; 4 years later it's worse. Resonates across ALL demographics

• Women voters: Winnable - 4-year delay on Rs 1000 is a betrayal narrative. Congress should announce superior package

• Youth crisis: 19.3% unemployment at crisis level - need credible employment plan, not just government jobs

• Mann vs Government: Mann's personal approval (42-45%) exceeds government satisfaction (38-42%) - focus on failures, not person

• Proof of concept: 2024 Lok Sabha proves AAP is beatable - Congress recovered from 2022 low of 18 seats

• Historical pattern: No Punjab government won 3 consecutive terms - anti-incumbency building but not yet decisive

Data Gaps (VERIFICATION_NEEDED): Independent satisfaction survey (2025-2026) NOT FOUND | Canal irrigation 22% to 70% AAP claim | 49% road accident reduction AAP claim | 65,264 jobs claim | Rs 10.59 crore social media spending allegation