Constituency Proliferation

117 Assembly constituencies • Booth-level targeting • Regional analysis

117 ACs Active

Total Constituencies

117

Assembly seats

Booths

23,847

Across 117 ACs (ECI data)

Avg Voters/Booth

906

Per booth (2.16Cr voters)

SC Reserved Seats

Out of 117 total ACs

Socio-Economic Crisis Impact on Constituencies (research-P2/10_socio_economic)

Economic distress driving voter anger across 117 assembly constituencies

Youth Unemployment

19.3%

Ages 15-29 (CRITICAL)

State Debt

₹4.17L Cr

LAST in NITI FHI

Drug Users

6.6 Million

18% of population

Groundwater

156%

Over-exploited

Youth Unemployment (15-29 yrs)19.3%

vs National Average 14.3% — 5pp higher in Punjab

Debt-to-GSDP Ratio44.47%

Fiscal limit: 25% — Punjab is 1.78x over limit

Groundwater Extraction156.36%

115 of 153 blocks over-exploited — agricultural crisis

Punjab vs Haryana Economic Comparison

Metric	Punjab	Haryana	Impact
Per Capita Income	₹2,30,523	₹3,25,000	41% less
Youth Unemployment	19.3%	14.8%	+4.5pp higher
State Debt/GSDP	44.47%	28.3%	+16.17pp higher
Groundwater	156%	112%	Over-exploited
HDI Rank	12	9	3 ranks lower

Per Capita Income

₹2,30,523

vs Haryana ₹3,25,000

Farm Debt

₹1.04L Cr

Avg ₹2.03L/household

HDI Rank

0.740

Rank 12 among states

Gini Coefficient

0.48

High inequality

Constituency Impact: Economic crisis affects all 117 ACs. Youth unemployment (19.3%) drives anger in urban seats. Farm debt and groundwater crisis hit rural Malwa hardest. Drug crisis (6.6M users) is the #1 issue in 40+ rural seats. Anti-incumbent sentiment is high across all constituencies.

2022 Assembly Election Results

AAP won 92 seats with 42.01% vote share • Congress collapsed to 18 seats

AAP Dominance

AAM AADMI PARTY (AAP)

42.01%

CONGRESS

22.98%

SHIROMANI AKALI DAL (SAD)

18.38%

BHARATIYA JANTA PARTY (BJP)

18.56%

AAP Vote Collapse Warning

AAP vote share collapsed from 42.01% (2022) to ~26% (2024 Lok Sabha) — losing 16 points in 2 years

BJP Growth Trajectory (Zero Lok Sabha Seats)

9.63% (2019) → 18.56% (2024) = +8.93 points growth • Led 24 assembly segments

2027 Target

Year	Vote Share	Lok Sabha Seats
2019	9.63%	0
2024	18.56%	0

2027 Assembly Prediction

12-18 Seats

BJP projected seats based on growth trajectory

Assembly Segment Control

24 Segments

BJP led despite 0 LS seats (2024)

Caste & Demographic Composition

Punjab's electorate is predominantly rural (66.7%) with significant caste diversity

SC (Scheduled Caste)32%

Jat Sikh21%

OBC (Other Backward Classes)31%

Hindu (General)38%

Key Demographics

Rural Population66.7%

Urban Population33.3%

First-Time Voters12-14 Lakh

Women Voters Target₹1,000/mo

Women cash scheme launched April 2026 — pilot program targeting female voters

Regional Constituency Distribution

Malwa(Central/South Punjab)

60 ACs

~236752L voters per constituency

Majha(Pakistan border, Central)

25 ACs

~236752L voters per constituency

Doaba(Dual river region)

23 ACs

~236752L voters per constituency

Powadh(Punjab-Haryana border)

9 ACs

~236752L voters per constituency

Malwa Alert: AAP won 66/69 Malwa seats in 2022 (96% win rate). BJP now leading 24 assembly segments despite 0 LS seats.

Constituency Type Breakdown

Urban

City constituencies

33.3%

Rural

Village constituencies

66.7%

Key Target

12 urban seats are swing constituencies with <5% margin

Constituency Crisis Indicators

Critical issues impacting voter sentiment and turnout

Groundwater Extraction157%

115/153 blocks over-exploited

Drug Users6.6M

106 overdose deaths (2024)

Farmer Debt₹2.03L

Per household average

Youth Unemployment18.8%

Ages 15-29

Critical Infrastructure Alert

Uranium contamination: 53% water samples in Malwa exceed safe limits. Groundwater extraction at 157% — 115 of 153 blocks over-exploited.

Top 10 Flip Opportunity Seats

Narrowest margins from 2024 Lok Sabha — highest conversion potential

Priority Targets

Constituency	Margin	Winner (2024)	District
Dera Baba Nanak	5,699	AAP	Gurdaspur
Ferozpur	3,242	Congress	Ferozpur
Jalandhar	1,76,000	Congress	Jalandhar
Bhattinda	52,584	SAD	Bathinda
Gurdaspur	72,847	Congress	Gurdaspur
Ludhiana	20,942	Congress	Ludhiana
Amritsar	40,146	Congress	Amritsar
Fatehgarh Sahib	34,202	Congress	Fatehgarh Sahib
Khadoor Sahib	Won	IND	Tarn Taran
Faridkot	Won	IND	Faridkot

Critical Margins

3 Seats

Under 10,000 votes

Low Margins

4 Seats

Under 75,000 votes

IND Seats

2 Seats

Khadoor Sahib, Faridkot

Congress MLA Safety Audit

Only 3-4 of 18 Congress MLAs are "safe" • Sukhpal Singh Khaira denied ticket (ED case)

18 MLAs Total

MLA Name	Constituency	Margin/Safety	Status
Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa	Dera Baba Nanak	466	Critical
Sukhpal Singh Khaira	Bholath	N/A	Denied Ticket
Jagbir Singh	Nakodar	1,200	Critical
Parminder Singh	Moga	2,100	Low
3-4 Others	Various	3000-5000	Moderate

Most Vulnerable

Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa (Dera Baba Nanak) won by only 466 votes in 2022 — the narrowest margin among all Congress MLAs. Dera Ballan influence is critical in this seat.

Informal Power Centres

Deras, religious bodies, and economic networks that influence voting patterns

Key Stakeholders

Dera Sachkhand Ballan

20+ lakh followers

Critical

Doaba19 seats influenced

SGPC (Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee)

Sikh community followers

High

State

Arhtiyas (Commission Agents)

15,000 followers

High

State

Bishnoi Gang (Lawrence)

Criminal network followers

Medium

South Punjab

Dera Sachkhand Ballan — Critical for Congress

20+ lakh followers • Controls 19 Doaba seats • Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa most vulnerable at 466 votes • NRI influence strong in Doaba region

Infrastructure & Development Metrics

Rs 16,209 Cr road program • 37 NH projects delayed • 4 stalled

Road Development44,920 km

₹16,209 Cr

NH Projects Delayed37

4 stalled projects

Malwa Uranium Contamination53%

Water samples exceed limits

Road Program

44,920 km

Under development

NH Projects

Delayed projects

Stalled Projects

National highways

Uranium Risk

53%

Water contamination

Welfare Schemes & Voter Outreach

SVEEP reaches 30-40% • Booth sevak strategy: 25,000 planned under Panna Pramukh model

Women Cash Transfer

₹1,000/month

Launched April 2026

SVEEP Outreach

30-40%

Voter education program

First-Time Voters

12-14 lakh

Eligible voters

Booth Sevak Strategy

Congress plans 25,000 booth sevaks under Panna Pramukh model. Target: 8-10 booth-level agents per booth for 100% coverage across 23,847 booths.

Issue Salience Matrix

12 issue categories measured via surveys, social media, news, KII, and focus groups

12 Categories

Drug CrisisCritical

6.6M users

Groundwater/EnvironmentCritical

115/153 blocks

Farmer Debt ReliefHigh

100% rural households

UnemploymentHigh

18.8% youth

Health InfrastructureMedium

Rural areas

Road InfrastructureMedium

44,920 km

Sacred Religious SitesMedium

597 cases pending

Caste PoliticsMedium

32% SC population

Regional Issue Signatures

Malwa

Drug crisis, groundwater, farmer debt

Majha

Border security, drug trafficking, unemployment

Doaba

Dera influence, NRI remittances, youth unemployment

2024 Lok Sabha Results — Punjab

Congress 7 | AAP 3 | SAD 1 | BJP 0 | IND 2 • Vote share: BJP 18.56%, Congress 22.98%, AAP 26%

Lok Sabha Seat	Winner	Margin	Trend
Gurdaspur	Congress	72,847	INC
Amritsar	Congress	40,146	INC
Khadoor Sahib	IND (Amritpal Singh)	Won	AAP→IND
Jalandhar	Congress (Channi)	1,76,000	INC
Hoshiarpur	Congress	Won	INC
Anandpur Sahib	AAP	Won	AAP
Ludhiana	Congress (Warring)	20,942	INC
Fatehgarh Sahib	Congress	34,202	INC
Faridkot	IND (Khalsa)	Won	IND
Ferozpur	Congress	3,242	INC
Bathinda	SAD	52,584	SAD
Sangrur	AAP (Meet Hayer)	1,73,000	AAP

Congress Vote Share

22.98%

AAP Vote Share

26%

BJP Vote Share

18.56%

SAD Vote Share

18.38%

LS 2024 Electoral Data (Cycle 2)

2.14 crore voters | 62.80% turnout | Vote share shifts | By-election results

Total Voters

2.14 Cr

LS 2024

Turnout

62.80%

LS 2024

First-Time Voters

5.38 L

New registrations

Congress LS Seats

AAP LS Seats

BJP LS Seats

Vote Share Shift (2022 Assembly vs 2024 LS)

Congress-13.82pp

AAP+18.16pp

BJP+8.93pp

SAD-14.03pp

Assembly Segment Leads (2024 LS)

Congress Leads

AAP Leads

BJP Leads

By-Election Results (AAP net +2 seats)

Seat	Result	Net Change
Jalandhar West	AAP win	+1 AAP
Gidderbaha	AAP win	+1 AAP
Tarn Taran	AAP win	+1 AAP (from Congress)

Current Assembly Composition (117 seats)

AAP

seats

INC

seats

SAD

seats

BJP

seats

BSP

seats

IND

seats

Note:Assembly composition reflects post-defection state. AAP 94 includes original 92 + 2 (Chog 1,IND 1). Congress reduced from 18 to 16 after Jakhar brothers' resignation.

Election Intelligence

Complete analysis of all 117 constituencies with key issues, SWOT, strategic blueprints

117 Constituencies

Critical Seats

117

High Priority

Medium

Recovery Target

CRITICAL - Immediate Action Required

CRITICAL (117)

Immediate intervention required - margin under 5,000 or opposition held

Constituency Proliferation

Punjab vs Haryana Economic Comparison

2022 Assembly Election Results

BJP Growth Trajectory (Zero Lok Sabha Seats)

2027 Assembly Prediction

Assembly Segment Control

Caste & Demographic Composition

Key Demographics

Regional Constituency Distribution

Constituency Type Breakdown

Constituency Crisis Indicators

Top 10 Flip Opportunity Seats

Congress MLA Safety Audit

Informal Power Centres

Dera Sachkhand Ballan

SGPC (Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee)

Arhtiyas (Commission Agents)

Bishnoi Gang (Lawrence)

Infrastructure & Development Metrics

Welfare Schemes & Voter Outreach

Women Cash Transfer

SVEEP Outreach

First-Time Voters

Issue Salience Matrix

Regional Issue Signatures

2024 Lok Sabha Results — Punjab

Vote Share Shift (2022 Assembly vs 2024 LS)

Assembly Segment Leads (2024 LS)

By-Election Results (AAP net +2 seats)

Current Assembly Composition (117 seats)

Election Intelligence

CRITICAL - Immediate Action Required

All 117 Constituencies