Caste Demographics

Caste coalition math, vote bank breakdown, demographic analysis

AAP Won 29 of 34 SC Reserved Seats (~85%) in 2022

Critical Dalit voter dominance. AAP converted social welfare into political capital. Congress must reclaim SC voter trust.

Caste Demographics — Congress Coalition Analysis

Community	Population %	Congress	Secondary	AAP	Key Issue
Jat Sikh	19-21%	25-30%	SAD 35-40%	20-25%	Drugs, farm distress, dera influence
SC (Total)	31.9%	42-48%	BSP 28-35%	12-18%	Land rights, unemployment, social justice
Mazhabi Sikh	26 lakh	Congress traditional	SAD voters	AAP voters	Rural Malwa/Majha, drug crisis
OBC	~31%	35-40%	BJP 25-30%	15-20%	Caste census, reservation, agrarian distress
Non-Jat Sikh	15-18%	25-30%	AAP 30-35%	30-35%	Governance, anti-corruption, urban development
Urban Hindu	8-10%	22-28%	BJP 40-50%	15-20%	National security, Hindutva, development

Caste Coalition Math — 70% Non-Jat Target

Source: Census 2011, NSS 2019, Vote transfer efficiency analysis

Caste/Community	Population %	Congress Share	BJP Share	AAP Share	Key Issue
SC (Dalit)	31.94%	Congress 42-48%	BSP 28-35%	12-18%	Land rights, unemployment, social justice
OBC	~31%	Congress 35-40%	BJP 25-30%	15-20%	Caste census, reservation, agrarian distress
Jat Sikh	20-25%	SAD 35-40%	Congress 25-30%	20-25%	Drug crisis, farm bills, river water sharing
Non-Jat Sikh	15-18%	AAP 30-35%	Congress 25-30%	30-35%	Governance, anti-corruption, urban development
Urban Hindu	8-10%	BJP 40-50%	Congress 22-28%	15-20%	National security, Hindutva, development
Muslim	1.9%	Congress 45-55%	AAP 20-25%	15-20%	Community security, Places of Worship Act

SC Population

31.94%

Primary targets: Congress 42-48%, BSP 28-35%

OBC Population

~31%

34 Lok Sabha seats equivalent

Non-Jat Sikh

15-18%

AAP strong segment

Sub-Caste Dalit Voting Patterns

Source: MP3-SYNTHESIS

Mazhabi Sikh (18-20%)

AAP 75-80% loyalty; Congress damaged by Raja Warring controversy; SAD at lowest ebb

Ravidassia/Ad-Dharmi (~8-10%)

Congress traditional base but shifting to AAP; Doaba region (13 seats)

Valmiki (~4-5%)

Congress base, BSP residual; Urban Doaba seats

Key Insight: Dalit vote fragmentation is STRUCTURAL - cannot be consolidated behind one party. Four major sub-castes with different religious affiliations and historical loyalties.

Caste & Religious Vote Bank Breakdown

Sikh Vote Bank

Congress26-31%

AAP20-25%

SAD (combined)18-22%

Jat Sikhs dominate; non-Jat Sikh votes swing more to AAP/Congress

Hindu Vote Bank

BJP40-50%

Congress22-28%

AAP15-20%

Urban Hindu voters trending BJP; rural Hindus more Congress

SC Vote Reach

Congress42-48%

BSP28-35%

AAP12-18%

Congress traditional SC backbone eroding to BSP

BSP Organizational Strength by AC

SC-majority ACs (>35% SC population):8-10 seats where BSP still commands 10-15% vote share

Kingmaker potential:Can determine winner between AAP and Congress in these seats

Congress opportunity:Dalit outreach + ticket allocation to Dalit candidates + specific welfare promises

Risk:If BSP fields independently in 15+ constituencies, three-way splitting hands seats to AAP

Dalit Vote Migration Intelligence

BSP collapse accelerating - whether Dalit votes flow to Congress, AAP, or fragment is unknown at constituency level.

Congress traditional SC backbone eroding to BSP (28-35% in some ACs) while Congress holds 42-48%.

AAP making inroads through SC-focused welfare schemes and Dalit candidate deployment (Tarn Taran example).

Congress 70% Non-Jat Strategy

32%

SC Population

31%

OBC Population

15-18%

Non-Jat Sikh

8-10%

Urban Hindu

Strategy: Congress needs to build a coalition of SC + OBC + Non-Jat Sikh + Urban Hindu = ~70% of population to counter SAD/BJP Jat Sikh base.