Candidate Supremacy
Winnability Analysis - CQI framework & ticket authority
3-Domain Winnability Model
Survey-based selection framework (Sunil Kanugolu)
Symbol strength 20%, local org 20%, caste-community 25%, election trend 20%
Local status 20%, caste match 25%, vote bank 20%, name recognition 20%
Personal wealth 30%, network 25%, commitment 25%, charisma 20%
Survey methodology: Ground-level support + worker feedback + caste-community equations + anti-incumbency factors
Ticket Allocation Strategy
New Faces
60-70 candidates fresh
60-70
Youth Target
50% under 50 years
50%
Women Quota
33% target confirmed
33%
Selection Method
3 independent surveys
3SURV
Priority Constituency Candidates
| Constituency | Incumbent | Winnability | Anti-Inc | Score | Margin | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amritsar West | None | 72% | Low | 82/100 | - | Strong |
| Ludhiana North | AAP MLA | 45% | High | 52/100 | ~4,200 | Review |
| Jalandhar Central | None | 68% | Low | 75/100 | - | Strong |
| Patiala | Congress MLA | 65% | Med | 71/100 | ~3,100 | Strong |
| Sangrur | AAP MLA | 38% | High | 41/100 | ~2,600 | Review |
| Chabbewal | AAP MLA | 52% | High | 58/100 | ~3,400 | Review |
| Dera Baba Nanak | AAP MLA | 61% | High | 67/100 | ~2,100 | Strong |
| Barnala | Congress (2024) | 88% | Low | 91/100 | ~7,200 | Priority |
| Malerkotla | Congress MLA | 85% | Low | 89/100 | ~5,600 | Priority |
| Ajnala | Congress MLA | 79% | Low | 84/100 | ~2,800 | Priority |
Candidate Quality Index (CQI) - 7 Dimension Framework
100-point scale for candidate evaluation
Local presence, acceptance, vote bank
Past wins, margin trends
Party support, worker network
Personal wealth, fundraising
Media, family legacy
Public speaking, crisis mgmt
Local issues, constituency needs
Grade A (85+): Strong candidate - priority nomination
MP10-001/005: Ticket Authority & Winnability
AICC High Command controls tickets, survey-based selection, renomination analysis
Decision Maker
AICC High Command
NOT PPCC
Punjab In-Charge
Bhupesh Baghel (AICC General Secretary)
Ticket Criterion
Winnability is the sole criterion
Surveys Commissioned
3 surveys
Renomination Rate (Elected MPs)
53%
vs 19% for lost candidates
Winnability Multipliers
Postgrad: ++28%
Criminal Cases: ++27%
Crorepati: ++14%
Field Work Requirement
6 months minimum before election
Minimum before elections
Note: Women and youth candidates receive differential scoring - youth get +15% winnability bonus. High Command authority overrides PPCC factional claims.
MP10-005 Candidate Viability Analysis
1,020 candidates analyzed, winnability multipliers from survey data
Total Candidates Analyzed
1,020
Renomination Rate
35%
Postgraduate +Winnability
+28%
Criminal Cases +Winnability
+27%
Crorepati Status +Winnability
+14%
Key Insight:Wrong candidate selection across 30+ seats could cost Congress 8-12 seat equivalents. Survey-derived candidates with high name recognition may have weak party worker backing. "Gadkhunt" risk: workers may actively campaign against "imported" candidates.
Winnability Multiplier Effect
High winnability candidate: +3-5 seats via local coattails
Poor candidate selection: -5-8% party vote in constituency
Survey Mechanics
3 independent surveys across all 117 ACs
Questions to general public AND party workers
Sunil Kanugolu supervised methodology
Risk Mitigation
Validate surveys against organizational feedback
Cross-check district-level worker sentiment
Investigate contradictions before finalizing