4
Candidate Supremacy
Overview - Key metrics, election performance & seat targets
Ticket Applicants
1,872
For 117 seats (16:1 ratio)
Probable Candidates
234
Shortlisted (2:1 ratio)
Winnability Index
68.5
Avg across top picks
3.2%vs last week
Anti-Incumbency Risk
23
High-risk incumbents
5%vs last week
2022 Election Performance
Baseline for 2027 turnaround strategy
AAP
Down from 62 in 2017
92 seats
42.4% vote share
Congress
Stable (18 in 2017)
18 seats
23.0% vote share
SAD
Collapsed from 15 in 2017
3 seats
6.4% vote share
BJP
Stable
2 seats
5.4% vote share
Congress lost 3/3 by-elections (Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, Chabbewal) in 2024
Tarn Taran dropped to 4th place - organizational collapse signal
2027 Seat Targets
Requires +12-15 percentage point swing from 23% vote share
Congress Target
55-65 seats
55-65
SC Seat Target
18-22 of 34 reserved
18-22
Vote Share Target
From 23% to 31-35%
+12pp
Regional Seat Distribution & Targets
Malwa
Total Seats69
Congress 202212
Target 202730-35
Target attainment43%
Majha
Total Seats27
Congress 20224
Target 202710-12
Target attainment37%
Doaba
Total Seats23
Congress 20222
Target 20278-10
Target attainment35%
By-Election Record (2022-2024)
GidderbahaAAP Won
Dera Baba NanakAAP Won
ChabbewalAAP Won
BarnalaCongress Won
Tarn TaranDropped to 4th
Digital Campaign Plan
Digital Push70%
Training PhaseApril-July 2026
Campaign IntensifyPost-mid-July
Yatra Plan3-phase Malwa/Majha/Doaba
Key Issues for 2027
Drug menace (6.6M users)
Punjab debt: Rs 4 lakh crore+
Water crisis (115/153 blocks critical)
Youth unemployment: 18.8%
Farmer debt: Rs 2.03L/household